CoreLogic’s Leading Home Price Index Forecast Accurate Within 1.3% of Actual Increase Over the Past 12 Months

—CoreLogic Releases HPI Forecast Validation Report—

IRVINE, Calif. — (BUSINESS WIRE) — November 5, 2020 — CoreLogic® (NYSE: CLGX), a leading global property information, analytics and data-enabled solutions provider, today released its latest CoreLogic® HPI Forecast Validation Report that compares its 12-month CoreLogic Home Price Index (HPI) Forecasts™ to the actual CoreLogic HPI™. The report compares the changes in national and key metropolitan-level forecasts made in June 2019 to the actual CoreLogic HPI, which includes data through June 2020.

The CoreLogic HPI Forecasts are a projection of home prices using the CoreLogic HPI and other economic variables. National values are derived from state-level forecasts by weighing indices according to the number of housing units for each state. Published every six months, the CoreLogic HPI Forecast Validation Report is designed to provide transparency into CoreLogic forecasting abilities.

The most recent report shows:

  • 11 of the top 50 metropolitan areas had a forecast accuracy prediction of 1% or less versus actual home prices over a 12-month period.
  • The National Index Forecast had a 5.6% change prediction, and the actual index value was 4.3% with a difference of 1.3%.
  • Milwaukee-Waukesha-West Allis and Atlanta-Sandy-Spring-Roswell both had near-perfect forecasts.
  • Home price growth in Austin-Round Rock, Texas, was underestimated most significantly. Austin, Texas, appreciated 7% during the 12-month period. CoreLogic had forecasted growth to be flat based on several factors, including income per capita growth versus home price growth and area economic forecasts. A primary driver of strong home price growth in the Austin, Texas metro was a severe supply shortage and a continued healthy demand.
  • Many of the major metros included on CoreLogic’s top 10 most accurate list are new to the CoreLogic ranking, except for Milwaukee, which ranked #1 as most accurate in February 2020 and is now ranked #2 most accurate.
  • The Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwal, Connecticut, metro continues to be the most undervalued mid-sized or large market with Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford, Connecticut, closely following Austin, Texas, as the most overvalued.

“The latest CoreLogic HPI Forecast Validation Report continues to deliver best-in-class forecasting as we move into the fourth quarter of 2020, with persistent economic volatility and uncertainty — largely caused by the COVID-19 pandemic — impacting every market in the U.S.,” said Ann Regan, executive, product management for CoreLogic. “Both our June 2019-September 2019 and March 2020-April 2020 forecasts were highly accurate and continue to demonstrate why CoreLogic is the gold standard in forecasting market price trends.”

 

Top 10 Most Accurately Forecasted Metros

Listed in order of accuracy

Ranking

Market

Population

HPI
Actual
Change

Forecasted
Change

Difference

1

Providence-Warwick, RI-MA

1.63 million

5.6%

5.5%

-0.1%

2

Milwaukee-Waukesha-West Allis, WI

1.59 million

5.2%

5.4%

0.2%

3

Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA

6.0 million

4.7%

4.9%

0.2%

4

Nassau County-Suffolk County, NY

2.83 million

4.2%

4.7%

0.5%

5

Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL

2.60 million

5.5%

4.9%

-0.6%

6

Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, CO

2.97 million

4.0%

4.6%

0.6%

7

Cleveland-Elyria, OH

2.06 million

5.9%

5.2%

-0.7%

8

Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV

6.28 million

4.1%

5.0%

0.9%

9

Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC

1.77 million

4.3%

5.3%

1.0%

10

Seattle-Bellevue-Everett, WA

4.90 million

5.5%

6.5%

1.0%

 

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