Germany’s brick-and-mortar retail turnover to grow by 1.3 percent in 2020

GfK’s regional retail turnover prognosis for 2020
 
Bruchsal, 27.02.2020 - GfK forecasts growth of €5.5 bil. in Germany’s brick-and-mortar retail trade in 2020. Populous cities such as Berlin, Hamburg and Munich are the forerunners in terms of the most retail turnover generated, but many mid-sized cities with a wide range of services and administrative functions for the surrounding area also offer favorable retail conditions.

GfK’s new study “GfK Retail Turnover 2020” anticipates a turnover volume of €428.6 bil. for Germany’s brick-and-mortar retail trade in 2020. Compared to the previous year, GfK expects a retail turnover increase of €5.5 bil., which corresponds to a nominal increase of 1.3 percent.

Germany’s regional distribution of turnover

Germany’s most populous districts lead the way with regard to retail turn-over: The country’s capital takes first place by a wide margin in the retail turnover (mil. €) district rankings: Berlin is responsible for almost €19.5 bil. of the country’s brick-and-mortar retail turnover, which corresponds to 4.54 percent of Germany’s total retail turnover. As in the previous year, second through sixth places go to Hamburg (2.71%), Munich (2.63%), Cologne (1.70%), Hannover (1.58%) and Frankfurt am Main (1.06%), respectively.

But there has been a change in this year’s top ten line-up: Düsseldorf and Stuttgart switch places in the rankings, with Düsseldorf taking the lead. Each of these cities is responsible for around one percent of Germany’s total brick-and-mortar retail turnover. The top ten districts together generate 17.86 percent of Germany's total brick-and-mortar retail turnover.

Top 10 districts for total retail turnover

turnover ranking

urban district (UD) / rural district (RD)

inhabitants

retail turnover in mil. €

share as a % of total brick-and-mortar retail turnover

1

Berlin UD

3,644,826

19,454.9

4.54%

2

Hamburg UD

1,841,179

11,614.6

2.71%

3

Munich UD

1,471,508

11,258.1

2.63%

4

Cologne UD

1,085,664

7,271.0

1.70%

5

Hannover region

1,157,624

6,760.0

1.58%

6

Frankfurt am Main UD

753,056

4,538.2

1.06%

7

Düsseldorf UD

619,294

4,301.0

1.00%

8

Stuttgart UD

634,830

4,260.9

0.99%

9

Nuremberg UD

518,365

3,595.8

0.84%

10

Dortmund UD

587,010

3,483.0

0.81%

source: GfK Retail Turnover Germany 2020; UD = urban district; RD = rural district

Strong retail locations draw consumers seeking a large retail selection, good bargains and an enjoyable urban shopping experience. In this respect, large cities can offer optimal conditions for positioning brands thanks to high demand and turnover volume. But such retail hotspots frequently have fierce competition, leading to a surplus offering for certain industries and target groups. The competition for retail real estate is also highest in these areas.

As a result, somewhat smaller cities continue to grow in importance for retailers interested in optimizing or expanding their networks. Mid-sized cities that offer a variety of services for the surrounding region enjoy per capita turnover volumes almost twice that of the current national average of €5,163. Such is the case for the urban district of Würzburg, which again takes first place in the district rankings for per capita retail turnover, followed by the urban districts of Straubing and Passau. The urban district of Zweibrücken moves up three spots to seventh place with a per capita retail turnover that is more than 76 percent higher than national average.

Top 10 districts for per capita retail turnover

index ranking

urban district (UD) / rural district (RD)

inhabitants

retail turnover in mil. €

retail turnover index*

1

Würzburg UD

127,880

1,309.0

198.3

2

Straubing UD

47,794

464.9

188.4

3

Passau UD

52,469

509.8

188.2

4

Trier UD

110,636

1,045.2

183.0

5

Weiden i.d.OPf. UD

42,520

399.8

182,1

6

Schweinfurt UD

54,032

494.8

177.4

7

Zweibrücken UD

34,209

311.2

176.2

8

Ingolstadt UD

136,981

1,244.2

175.9

9

Rosenheim UD

63,324

566.9

173.4

10

Koblenz UD

114,024

998.5

169.6

source:GfK Retail Turnover Germany 2020; UD = urban district; RD = rural district; *100 = national average

NOTE: The per capita values represent a purely mathematical benchmark, because retail at the respective locations is by no means transacted solely by the local inhabitants. Insight into the retail drawing power of the regions in question can nonetheless be gained by correlating retail turnover with population size.

About the study

GfK Retail Turnover reveals the regional distribution of brick-and-mortar retail turnover. In contrast to GfK Purchasing Power, which is calculated at consumers’ places of residence, GfK Retail Turn-over is calculated at the points of sale. The retail turnover values exclude automobile and fuel sales as well as online and mail-order trade.

GfK annually calculates GfK Retail Turnover for every regional level as total and per capita values in euros and as an index (German average = 100). These calculations have been carried out for all of Germany's urban and rural districts as well as municipalities and postcodes with a retail turnover of at least €1.5 mil. and more than three retail businesses.

The study "GfK Retail Turnover" is also available for many other European countries.

Additional information

on GfK’s regional market data can be found  here .

Print-quality illustrations

can be found  here .

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