Annual Home Price Gains Continue To Fall According To S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index

NEW YORK, June 25, 2019 — (PRNewswire) —  S&P Dow Jones Indices today released the latest results for the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices. Data released today for April 2019 shows that the rate of home price increases across the U.S. has continued to slow. More than 27 years of history for these data series is available, and can be accessed in full by going to www.homeprice.spdji.com. Additional content on the housing market can also be found on S&P Dow Jones Indices' housing blog: www.housingviews.com

YEAR-OVER-YEAR 

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 3.5% annual gain in April, down from 3.7% in the previous month. The 10-City Composite annual increase came in at 2.3%, up from 2.2% in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a 2.5% year-over-year gain, down from 2.6% in the previous month.

Las Vegas, Phoenix and Tampa reported the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities. In April, Las Vegas led the way with a 7.1% year-over-year price increase, followed by Phoenix with a 6.0% increase, and Tampa with a 5.6% increase. Nine of the 20 cities reported greater price increases in the year ending April 2019 versus the year ending March 2019. 

MONTH-OVER-MONTH

Before seasonal adjustment, the National Index posted a month-over-month increase of 0.9% in April. The 10-City and 20-City Composites both reported 0.8% increases for the month. After seasonal adjustment, the National Index recorded a 0.3% month-over-month increase in April. The 10-City Composite posted a 0.2% month-over-month increases and the 20-City Composite did not report an increase. In April, 19 of 20 cities reported increases before seasonal adjustment, while 14 of 20 cities reported increases after seasonal adjustment.

ANALYSIS

"Home price gains continued in a trend of broad-based moderation," says Philip Murphy, Managing Director and Global Head of Index Governance at S&P Dow Jones Indices. "Year-over-year price gains remain positive in most cities, though at diminishing rates of change. Seattle is a notable exception, where the YOY change has decreased from 13.1% in April 2018 to 0.0% in April 2019.

"The national average 30-year fixed mortgage rate rose from below 4% in late 2017 to briefly reaching almost 5% by the latter part of 2018. Peak YOY changes in the 20-City Composite coincided with the upward turn in mortgage rates during the first quarter of 2018. In 2019, mortgage rates reversed course again and the 30-year fixed mortgage rate is again under 4%, yet the YOY house price moderation that coincided with the 2018 uptick in rates has not changed course. Other industry statistics are consistent with this observation. For example, the national supply of housing is trending upward and suggesting weaker demand. Perhaps the trend for the moment is toward normalization around the real long run average annual price increase. Comparing the YOY National Index nominal change of 3.5% to April's inflation rate of 2.0% yields a real house price change of 1.5% - edging closer to the real long run average of 1.2% cited by David Blitzer last month."

SUPPORTING DATA 

Table 1 below shows the housing boom/bust peaks and troughs for the three composites along with the current levels and percentage changes from the peaks and troughs.


2006 Peak

2012 Trough

Current

Index

Level

Date

Level

Date

From Peak (%)

Level

From Trough (%)

From Peak (%)

National

184.62

Jul-06

134.00

Feb-12

-27.4%

207.97

55.2%

12.6%

20-City

206.52

Jul-06

134.07

Mar-12

-35.1%

215.68

60.9%

4.4%

10-City

226.29

Jun-06

146.45

Mar-12

-35.3%

229.06

56.4%

1.2%

Table 2 below summarizes the results for April 2019. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices are revised for the prior 24 months, based on the receipt of additional source data.


April 2019

April/March

March/February

1-Year

Metropolitan Area

Level

Change (%)

Change (%)

Change (%)

Atlanta

151.46

1.0%

0.8%

4.9%

Boston

220.98

1.9%

1.6%

3.9%

Charlotte

162.26

1.0%

0.8%

4.2%

Chicago

144.28

1.2%

0.6%

1.9%

Cleveland

123.18

0.7%

0.9%

3.5%

Dallas

190.27

0.6%

0.3%

2.7%

Denver

221.53

0.8%

1.0%

3.8%

Detroit

125.80

1.6%

0.5%

3.5%

Las Vegas

191.48

0.6%

0.1%

7.1%

Los Angeles

284.54

1.0%

0.5%

1.5%

Miami

242.42

0.1%

0.6%

3.9%

Minneapolis

174.26

1.0%

1.0%

3.0%

New York

200.84

0.0%

-0.1%

2.1%

Phoenix

189.67

0.8%

0.4%

6.0%

Portland

235.72

1.1%

0.7%

2.6%

San Diego

257.68

0.5%

1.1%

0.8%

San Francisco

268.85

1.6%

2.0%

1.8%

Seattle

251.65

1.1%

1.6%

0.0%

Tampa

218.34

0.7%

0.5%

5.6%

Washington

231.94

0.9%

0.9%

2.6%

Composite-10

229.06

0.8%

0.7%

2.3%

Composite-20

215.68

0.8%

0.7%

2.5%

U.S. National

207.97

0.9%

0.6%

3.5%

Sources: S&P Dow Jones Indices and CoreLogic



Data through April 2019






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