Home Price Gains Slow According To S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller Index

NEW YORK, Sept. 25, 2018 — (PRNewswire) —  S&P Dow Jones Indices today released the latest results for the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices. Data released today for July 2018 shows that home prices continued their rise across the country over the last 12 months. More than 27 years of history for these data series is available, and can be accessed in full by going to www.homeprice.spdji.com. Additional content on the housing market can also be found on S&P Dow Jones Indices' housing blog: www.housingviews.com.

YEAR-OVER-YEAR

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 6.0% annual gain in July, down from 6.2% in the previous month. The 10-City Composite annual increase came in at 5.5%, down from 6.0% in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a 5.9% year-over-year gain, down from 6.4% in the previous month.

Las Vegas, Seattle and San Francisco continued to report the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities. In July, Las Vegas led the way with a 13.7% year-over-year price increase, followed by Seattle with a 12.1% increase and San Francisco with a 10.8% increase. Five of the 20 cities reported greater price increases in the year ending July 2018 versus the year ending June 2018.

MONTH-OVER-MONTH

Before seasonal adjustment, the National Index posted a month-over-month gain of 0.4% in July. The 10-City and 20-City Composites reported increases of 0.2% and 0.3%, respectively. After seasonal adjustment, the National Index recorded a 0.2% month-over-month increase in July. The 10-City Composite remained flat and the 20-City Composite posted a 0.1% month-over-month increase. Eighteen of 20 cities reported increases in June before seasonal adjustment, while 13 of 20 cities reported increases after seasonal adjustment.

ANALYSIS          

"Rising homes prices are beginning to catch up with housing," says David M. Blitzer, Managing Director and Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices. "Year-over-year gains and monthly seasonally adjusted increases both slowed in July for the S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller National Index and the 10 and 20-City Composite indices. The slowing is widespread: 15 of 20 cities saw smaller monthly increases in July 2018 than in July 2017. Sales of existing single family homes have dropped each month for the last six months and are now at the level of July 2016. Housing starts rose in August due to strong gains in multifamily construction. The index of housing affordability has worsened substantially since the start of the year.

"Since home prices bottomed in 2012, 12 of the 20 cities tracked by the S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller indices have reached new highs before adjusting for inflation. The eight that remain underwater include the four cities which led the home price boom:   Las Vegas, Miami, Phoenix and Tampa. All are enjoying rising prices, especially Las Vegas which currently has the largest year-over-year increases of all 20 cities. The other cities where prices are still not over their earlier peaks are Washington DC, Chicago, New York and Atlanta. "

SUPPORTING DATA

Table 1 below shows the housing boom/bust peaks and troughs for the three composites along with the current levels and percentage changes from the peaks and troughs.


2006 Peak

2012 Trough

Current

Index

Level

Date

Level

Date

From Peak
(%)

Level

From Trough
(%)

From Peak
(%)

National

184.62

Jul-06

134.00

Feb-12

-27.4%

205.35

53.2%

11.2%

20-City

206.52

Jul-06

134.07

Mar-12

-35.1%

213.76

59.4%

3.5%

10-City

226.29

Jun-06

146.45

Mar-12

-35.3%

227.05

55.0%

0.3%

Table 2 below summarizes the results for July 2018. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices are revised for the prior 24 months, based on the receipt of additional source data.


July 2018

July/June

June/May

1-Year

Metropolitan Area

Level

Change (%)

Change (%)

Change (%)

Atlanta

147.56

0.5%

0.6%

5.8%

Boston

216.62

0.1%

0.9%

6.0%

Charlotte

157.99

0.1%

0.6%

5.6%

Chicago

145.11

0.3%

0.8%

3.0%

Cleveland

123.57

1.4%

1.0%

5.7%

Dallas

187.47

0.2%

0.4%

5.0%

Denver

217.11

0.3%

0.6%

8.0%

Detroit

124.24

0.4%

1.0%

6.2%

Las Vegas

186.06

1.4%

1.4%

13.7%

Los Angeles

283.20

0.1%

0.5%

6.4%

Miami

237.73

0.4%

0.6%

5.0%

Minneapolis

173.31

0.4%

0.9%

6.0%

New York

198.02

0.1%

0.2%

3.4%

Phoenix

183.54

0.7%

0.8%

7.5%

Portland

235.41

0.5%

0.7%

5.6%

San Diego

258.55

0.0%

0.6%

6.2%

San Francisco

270.10

0.6%

0.5%

10.8%

Seattle

259.01

0.0%

0.7%

12.1%

Tampa

210.42

0.6%

0.6%

6.8%

Washington

228.78

0.2%

0.5%

2.7%

Composite-10

227.05

0.2%

0.5%

5.5%

Composite-20

213.76

0.3%

0.6%

5.9%

U.S. National

205.35

0.4%

0.8%

6.0%

Sources: S&P Dow Jones Indices and CoreLogic



Data through July 2018





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