CoreLogic Identifies Residential Real Estate Risk Associated With Potential Oroville Dam Failure

-More than 50,000 homes totaling more than $13 billion in reconstruction cost at risk-

Feb 15, 2017 -- According to new data analysis from CoreLogic®, within the six primary counties at risk if the Oroville Dam were to fail completely, 50,047 single- and multi-family residential homes* could be damaged with an estimated reconstruction cost value (RCV) of $13.3 billion. Figure 1 shows the number of homes along with the RCV in Butte, Colusa, Glenn, Sutter, Yolo and Yuba counties in California. The RCV reflects the cost to rebuild a property assuming 100-percent destruction. Of the at-risk homes, only 12 percent are in a Special Flood Hazard Area (SFHA) as designated by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). Homes with a mortgage identified as in an SFHA are required to carry flood insurance, but many homeowners do not carry flood insurance if they are not required to do so. Figure 2 shows the number of homes along with the RCV for the most at-risk cities** that could be affected by the dam’s failure.

Figure 1: Total Homes at Risk and Reconstruction Cost Value by County

County Number of Homes Estimated RCV
Butte 15,750 $3,368,371,427
Colusa 2,344 $633,516,296
Glenn 42 $8,202,197
Sutter 25,504 $7,604,338,675
Yolo  262 $64,058,854
Yuba 6,145 $1,584,443,943
TOTAL 50,047 $13,262,931,392

Figure 2: Total Homes at Risk and Reconstruction Cost Value by City and ZIP Code 

City Zip Number of Homes Estimated RCV
Yuba City 95993 10,384 $3,444,062,491
Yuba City 95991 10,293 $2,901,591,425
Oroville 95965 6,867 $1,387,826,184
Oroville 95966 4,528 $912,344,538
Marysville 95901 5,237 $1,369,704,343
Gridley 95948 3,122 $810,017,464
Live Oak 95953 2,950 $768,036,402
Colusa 95932 2,052 $577,478,166
Sutter 95982 1,143 $314,284,022
Biggs 95917 990 $231,498,912
TOTAL   47,566 $12,716,843,947

The majority of homes at risk are between 20 and 60 miles from the dam, totaling 33,967 properties with an estimated RCV of $9.8 billion. Additionally, there are 16,080 homes at risk of damage less than 20 miles from the dam with an estimated RCV of $3.5 billion.  

*The analysis encompasses single-family residential structures and also includes mobile homes, duplexes, manufactured homes and cabins, among other non-traditional home types.

**The city-level data represents 95 percent of the cities affected. The remaining 5 percent are included in the county totals.

CORELOGIC and the CoreLogic logo are trademarks of CoreLogic, Inc. and/or its subsidiaries. All other trademarks are the property of their respective owners.

Alexandra Hayes
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